“The first rule of Fight Club is: you do not talk about Fight Club.”
You know what else we don’t talk about?  That July isn’t just another month to slap on a 30%‑off banner and hope the cart gods smile on us.

Most people see Prime Day, Target Circle Week, TikTok flash sales, Walmart Deals and think, “Nice, mid‑year shopping spike.” But smart brands? They’re using July for something else entirely.  

Like Warren Buffett says: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

July is your low tide and it shows you the cracks before the big holiday waves roll in.

Look at Target locking prices: $5 backpacks, same as 2024!! Yeah, not because they’re feeling generous, but because parents are already bracing for tariff‑driven sticker shock. Hold the price, win the trust, and you’ll own their cart before they even look at your competitors.

And here’s the part most people miss: early positive brand association means when those same shoppers are doing their big holiday shop four months from now, Target will be top of mind. That trust turns into higher recall, and higher conversion rates, when it really matters. It’s a long game, and it’s smart.

TikTok Shop flooding feeds with creator hauls, proving that impulse beats intent every time.

And hey, those aren’t official boardroom confessions, alright! But they’re moves we can all see in plain sight.  

It’s not just us saying it. Analysts from Retail Brew to Reuters have already called these mid‑year events what they really are: pre‑holiday stress tests. So, we’re not guessing here, we’re just connecting the dots.  

Let’s break them down one by one. What really went down in these mega‑sales, the micro‑trends hiding inside them, and what we can take away.

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Did you know?

• Impulse drives the cart: TikTok’s “Deals for You Days” moved shoppers with almost zero search.

• Walmart’s BOPIS orders rose 21% during Deals Week. Mixing pickup with shipping spreads the load and keeps last‑mile costs down.

• Value isn’t just a discount, bundles, perks, and protection plans can increase order value without touching your base prices.

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Amazon prime day 2025

What we saw

Listen, Prime Day this year wasn’t just busy, it was a monster. Four days long, $24B in U.S. sales… basically two Black Fridays smashed together.  

A couple of weeks before it started, Amazon dropped $4B to expand one‑day and same‑day delivery to more than 4,000 small towns and rural areas. They’re not slowing down either; they want to triple their delivery network by 2026.

Oh, and BNPL (buy now pay later) usage bumped up to 8.1% of all orders, up from 7.4% a year ago, totaling roughly $2 B in spend and growing 33% YoY

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Why should you care?

If Amazon makes one‑day delivery feel normal in tiny towns, city shoppers are going to expect instant everything from you too. Doesn’t matter if you’re on FBA or not, that’s now the standard they’ll measure you against.

And BNPL? Not optional anymore. It’s not just for big‑ticket splurges, shoppers use it on $80 orders because it feels easier. If you offer it, show it by the price, not buried at checkout.

What to steal

• Check delivery times: If July slipped, Q4 will crack.

• Spread stock: Multiple 3PLs, closer to buyers.

• Sell speed + BNPL: Show both up front.

• Watch AOV: BNPL can lift basket size.

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TikTok shop: “deals for you days” ‍

What we saw

TikTok dropped “Deals for You Days” (DFYD) on June 27 and gave sellers just 13 days to sign up. Thirteen! The sale ran July 7–19 with discounts up to 50%. And TikTok didn’t just say “good luck”, they threw in 25% co‑funded coupons, free shipping up to $30, and ad credits for top sellers.

And it was already heating up, U.S. TikTok Shop sales jumped 120% in the first five months of 2025 vs. last year. Livestreams were the big driver, and the new “Live Stream Price Match Guarantee”, so if you spotted the same thing cheaper somewhere else while the stream was still going, they’d hand you cashback. ‍

Why should you care?

On TikTok, people don’t just search, they click what finds them. Great for SMEs who can’t outspend the big guys. DFYD showed TikTok can grab wallet share fast, but if checkout or shipping is slow, the sale’s gone.

FYI, TikTok moves fast. If your checkout or shipping is slow, you’ll lose the impulse-buy before the next creator flashes the product.

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What to steal

• Fast checkout: 3 taps max or you’ll lose the impulse buy.

• Ship the dopamine: Same‑day pack, out the door in <24h.

• Use TikTok’s money: Stack 25% co‑funded coupons with $60‑ish bundles.

• Creators sell best: Give them kits or bundles to push.

• Follow up: Hit July buyers with Q4 offers.

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Walmart said “bundle like you mean it”

Walmart wasn’t shy about going head‑to‑head with Prime Day. Their six‑day Deals event (July 8–13) was longer than Amazon’s and, for the first time, in‑store aisles joined the action from day one.

And they bundled like crazy. Laptop + printer. TV + soundbar. Kitchen set + air fryer. All priced to look like no‑brainer value, often undercutting Amazon’s versions. Result? +24% YoY spend online, 6× Amazon’s Prime growth.  

And remember, they did it while Amazon was footing half the marketing bill by training shoppers to hunt deals that week.

                                                        Source: Walmart

Why should you care?

Bundles aren’t just “cute packaging.” They’re profit weapons.

They get shoppers to spend more, clear out slow‑moving stock, and give a better deal without slashing the price on your main product.

Walmart used July to figure out exactly which price points make people say yes. They tested how much in‑store pickup volume they could handle without breaking the system, and they made sure loyal customers were with them well before Q4 even started.

What to steal

• Test bundle sizes: Sell one item, a small set, and a big kit, see which sells best.

• Treat VIPs first: Let your best customers shop early or give them an extra coupon.

• Offer store pickup perks: Give a small discount or gift if they pick up instead of ship.

• Make sales last longer: Run deals for 5+ days so you have more time to sell and learn what works.

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All of these ideas sound great on paper. But if it were that easy, you’d already be doing them, right?

Yeah, I know, going head‑to‑head with big‑box retailers takes deep pockets, massive teams, and resources most merchants just don’t have. With razor‑thin margins, it can feel impossible to compete.

Though, did you realize you too have access to another high profit channel that can help you beat the odds?

SureBright’s AI‑powered warranties help your customers get peace of mind, while you get a new high profit-margin revenue stream. And you can go a step further, add a shipping protection plan to the product at checkout.   

Sounds helpful, right? Check us out, we’ll keep your products healthy and thriving while they are travelling.

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Overall trends from mid‑year mega sales

Fast is the new normal

• Yeah, of course it is. One‑day delivery, same‑day shipping, people expect it now. If you’re slower, they’re gone.

Impulse drives the buy  

• You know this. They’re buying what hits them in the feed right now, not after a week of thinking. Miss that moment and poof, gone.  

Bundles protect your margin  

• Smart bundles make people spend more, clear your shelves, and still keep your main product’s price looking solid.

BNPL is everywhere  

• Even $80 orders are getting split. It just feels easier for shoppers, and yeah, it makes carts bigger.

VIPs go first  

• Give your best customers early access and they’ll stick with you. Plus, it’s the safest way to test your systems before holiday madness.

Mix online with pickup

• Push some orders to store pickup now so you’re not drowning in deliveries later.

Stretch it out  

• Five‑day sales beat a 48‑hour scramble every time. More time, more data, less chaos.

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Finally,

So yeah, Prime Day, TikTok hauls, $5 Target backpacks...they’re not just mid‑summer fireworks, they’re your qualification laps before the grand prix in Q4.

The smartest brands aren’t just ringing the till right now. They’re stress‑testing, spotting the cracks, and learning exactly what makes their buyers say yes faster. Then they fix it, while the stakes are low.

As Benjamin Franklin said: “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”

July is when you get ready, locking in your systems, offers, and customer trust so you can sail through the holiday season safely.

Start now. And if you need the blueprint, start here:  Christmas in July? Yes, it's the smartest move E-Commerce retailers are making for peak shopping season.

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